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Mesoscale Discussion 881
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NRN KS AND ADJACENT NWRN MO...SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252...

   VALID 040656Z - 040830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 252 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 252 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED...BUT STRONGER STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...THROUGH DAYBREAK.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS...BUT
   GENERALLY NO LONGER APPEARS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ACTIVITY
   DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS BECOME LARGELY FOCUSED WITHIN A
   ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
   OF THE WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
   EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION.  BASED ON
   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH 700 MB TEMPERATURE AND 850 MB WIND
   FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS POTENTIAL GENESIS ZONE IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH DAYBREAK.  SO THERE MAY BE LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESS
   OF ONGOING STORMS...WHICH MAY REMAIN MOSTLY WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF
   THE OMAHA AREA.  

   DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE RATHER MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN
   MID-LEVELS /LIKELY INCLUDING MUCH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER/.
    HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING
   TO SIZABLE CAPE AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A
   CONTINUING RISK FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN REMAINING STRONGER STORMS.

   ..KERR.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41329928 41399711 40959575 40429485 39229502 39269692
               39729862 40309995 40959979 41329928 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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