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Mesoscale Discussion 882
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...TX SOUTH PLAINS/SRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 072027Z - 072230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND
   THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
   AND A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY
   HAS REINFORCED COOLER/STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE INTO
   NERN NM.  THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY OF CONCERN CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM
   KING COUNTY TX...WNWWD TO JUST NORTH OF LBB...SOUTH OF CVS TO NEAR
   4CR.  ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 2KM DEEP...EXTENDS
   ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO ECNTRL NM.  VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS IS SURGING WEST ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND MID 60S SFC
   DEW POINTS ARE NOW OBSERVED AS FAR WEST AS CVS.  AGITATED CU FIELD
   IS NOTED WITHIN THIS ZONE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LONE
   STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER QUAY COUNTY NM. 
   HOWEVER...DEEPENING CU EXTEND SW OF QUAY COUNTY CONVECTION AND
   SHOULD MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS CAP
   WEAKENS UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A ZONE FAVORABLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MOST SUPERCELLS AS THEY
   TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33900522 34940531 35580424 35160279 34700128 34200052
               33260073 33550277 33900522 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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