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Mesoscale Discussion 882
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...BLACK HILLS AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253...

   VALID 040729Z - 040900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   DIMINISHING...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ISOLATED...AND REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
   INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF SUSTAINED PERSISTENT CELLS.  ONE
   IS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK /NEAR DOUGLAS WY/ OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   PROGRESSING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.  THE
   OTHER IS ISOLATED OFF TO THE EAST...SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE BLACK
   HILLS REGION...WITHIN SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
   20 KT.  

   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...AIDED BY PRONOUNCED
   VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
   CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE IN INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
   IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME WILL FURTHER DIMINISH CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AS REMAINING ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE
   BLACK HILLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..KERR.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43640502 44960340 44450204 43750219 42610378 42730542
               43640502 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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