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Mesoscale Discussion 883
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254...

   VALID 040946Z - 041115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZE SEVERE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUST RISK MAY PERSIST
   THROUGH 10-12Z...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN
   HASTINGS AND BEATRICE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND DAYBREAK.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF COLBY KS.  ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED WITHIN A RELATIVELY
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/THERMAL
   ADVECTION... ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WHICH ARCS EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATE BORDER AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
   WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT FLUCTUATIONS
   IN INTENSITY...STORMS MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING IN THE
   PRESENCE OF INCREASING INHIBITION BENEATH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR.

   A SMALL AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF
   HASTINGS NE ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE BETTER MAINTAINING STRONG/SEVERE
   INTENSITY.  THIS IS NEAR THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT...WHICH APPEARS
   TO BE DELINEATING THE MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER...ON THE NOSE OF A 35-45 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET.  A LOCALIZED
   RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY LINGER WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AS IT APPROACHES BEATRICE...BEFORE
   PROBABLY DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

   ..KERR.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40150001 40799842 40599674 40099608 39689661 39719827
               39559954 39640002 40150001 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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