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Mesoscale Discussion 883
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE/SRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072032Z - 072300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING ORIENTED
   ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED AXIS IS CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND
   IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO N-CNTRL MS. WITH
   AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...STORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED AMIDST
   WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BUT DIURNALLY DEEPENED PBL CIRCULATIONS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN 30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   BOLSTERING DEEP SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS -- POSSIBLY GROWING
   LOCALLY UPSCALE -- MAY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. LATE IN
   THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...INTENSE CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN WW
   252 MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SVR RISK.
   BEFORE THAT TIME...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT COULD PRECLUDE A
   GREATER-COVERAGE EVENT FROM OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35088966 35268899 35528732 36518693 36408590 35748562
               33898576 33288734 33258921 34358969 35088966 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2014
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