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Mesoscale Discussion 884
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN AND W-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041442Z - 041615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE ONGOING STORMS THIS MORNING.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF MULTIPLE MCSS WHICH FORMED OVERNIGHT
   ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 1430Z OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...NERN KS AND
   NRN MO WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM MOTION OF 280-300/25 KT.  MODIFICATION
   OF THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING FOR CURRENT BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITHIN
   THE IMMEDIATE INFLOW REGION TO THESE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
   IS STILL ELEVATED AMIDST AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 1500
   J/KG.

   IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...AND THAT MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
   THE DAY VIA HORIZONTAL ADVECTION /SEE 12Z DDC SOUNDING/...IT DOES
   NOT APPEAR THAT THE ONGOING STORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER ANYTIME SOON.  AND WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
   GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
   MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW IN
   THE SHORT TERM.

   ..MEAD.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39229720 39729693 40079538 39809390 39179337 38679361
               38299415 38149506 38239560 38549621 38749690 38949711
               39229720 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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