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Mesoscale Discussion 885
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL NEB...NE KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041726Z - 041900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL NEB OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AS
   CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL NEB INTO NCNTRL IA. SFC
   DEWPOINTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN SRN NEB ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
   BUT SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. A COUPLE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED IN
   LINCOLN COUNTY NEB NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT WITH AN AXIS
   OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOWN BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THIS
   IS EVIDENT ON THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP THAT SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT.
   THIS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY
   REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY
   LAYER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. LARGE
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY
   WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
   IN RILEY AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
   ALONG A NW TO SE GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAKER
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SHOULD BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY AN
   INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   COULD OCCUR...THE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL THERE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39629794 40109878 40470098 40960111 41430075 41679999
               41429871 40579682 39499587 38919594 38769677 39629794 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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