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Mesoscale Discussion 886
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...FAR WRN NEB...NE AND ECNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041953Z - 042130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE WY SEWD
   INTO ECNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED AS MORE CELLS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW OVER MUCH OF
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
   F ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 70S F ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WRN EDGE OF
   INSTABILITY FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SWD TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION TO STEEP
   LAPSE RATES...THE CHEYENNE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 3 KM AND 35 TO 40 KT OF WSWLY
   FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS
   ACCOMPANIED WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A TORNADO THREAT. THE
   MORE DOMINANT STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2
   INCHES IN DIAMETER AS CELLS MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38940275 38790371 38990445 40540506 42060549 42740555
               42950487 42190388 41150301 39540249 38940275 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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