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Mesoscale Discussion 886
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080006Z - 080230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM THIS EVENING
   ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK INTO NWRN TX. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
   THREAT AND A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND STRONG
   INSTABILITY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN
   OK...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE NLY SFC
   WINDS...THE ROBUST MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL ENOUGH TO WEAKEN CIN
   GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODIFIED OUTFLOW
   AIR. 

   LATER THIS EVENING...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST N OF THE SFC
   FRONT...IN ANTICIPATION OF AN MCS WHICH SHOULD CONGEAL ACROSS ERN NM
   AND THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS. THIS COULD CAUSE A BAND OF CELLS TO
   FORM EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
   POSSIBLE. THIS LIFT SHOULD BE MOST EVIDENT JUST PRIOR TO MCS
   ARRIVAL...WITH NRN END POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS I-40 TONIGHT. 

   IN THE NEAR TERM...IF THE WEAK STORMS OVER SRN OK/NRN TX CAN SHOW
   EVIDENCE OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED EARLIER.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34900002 35219908 35159763 35029662 34869627 34309606
               34029625 33659749 33589942 33900007 34900002 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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