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Mesoscale Discussion 887
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0828 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080128Z - 080330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH/EAST OF A LINE
   OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. GIVEN DECREASING
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...A NEW WATCH SHOULD NOT BE
   REQUIRED. HOWEVER...A BRIEF...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS
   NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   EVENING. AS THE COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED...A SOUTHWARD
   COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY DEVELOP. PER MESOANALYSIS...THE AIRMASS
   SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS UNSTABLE /AS NEWLY
   DEVELOPED...ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD SUPPORT/ WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 2000 J/KG. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 257 /AND
   IMMEDIATELY SOUTH/...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS
   WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT FROM
   WATCH 257...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH THE ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. UNLESS A PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF
   MOTION CAN DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE SYSTEM...A NEW
   WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WATCH 257.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34258819 34338695 34258578 33838534 33458558 33418727
               33548826 34258819 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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