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Mesoscale Discussion 887
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NWRN KS...EXTREME ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 042028Z - 042200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE
   NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL KS
   IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   DEPICTING MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG IN PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NRN KS INTO FAR SWRN NEB. WHILE
   MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY MODEST...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING TO
   WSWLY ALOFT IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. 

   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
   POTENTIAL STORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   APPEARS TO BE LARGELY NEUTRAL AT THIS TIME...WITH A SERIES OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS ONLY GLANCING THE
   REGION. 1-MINUTE SUPER-RAPID SCAN IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS SLOW DEEPENING
   OF CU ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW...WITH NO IMMEDIATE INDICATION OF
   DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAKENING CAP AND
   CONTINUED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 21-23Z TIMEFRAME...WITH
   A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A TORNADO THREAT WILL
   ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT FAVORABLY INTERACTS
   WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TRENDS WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED
   WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38760256 39470242 40160174 40290074 39839865 39529787
               39129696 38759669 38459702 38449858 38430019 38550184
               38760256 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2015
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