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Mesoscale Discussion 888
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW KS...THE OK PANHANDLE...W TX...FAR
   ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042152Z - 050015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF A DRYLINE
   ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN TCC AND CVS TO NEAR DHT TO N OF LBL. THE
   DRYLINE IS MORE DIFFUSE FARTHER N INTO OTHER PARTS OF SW KS. STRONG
   DIABATIC SFC HEATING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DRYLINE HAS ENCOURAGED
   DEEP PBL MIXING. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXISTS E
   OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
   60S. DEEP DRYLINE-RELATED SOLENOIDAL CIRCULATIONS ACCENTUATED BY THE
   DEEP PBL WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
   SPREADING EWD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE ANY
   PARTICULARLY SALIENT MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CAPABLE OF FACILITATING
   MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...AREA VWPS
   SUGGEST THAT DEEP SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY AOB 30 KT...AND CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. 

   REGARDLESS...SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LARGE BUOYANCY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE
   MULTICELL STORMS. SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25-35F SUGGEST STRONG
   TO LOCALLY MARGINALLY SVR DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN OWING
   TO APPRECIABLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE
   SHOULD MITIGATE THIS RISK TO SOME EXTENT.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33870372 34900361 36000284 37310117 37710044 37469992
               36340011 35030171 33700286 33590356 33870372 

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