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Mesoscale Discussion 889
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122320Z - 130045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE
   SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING DESCRIBED IN MCD 883
   REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
   STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE S OF A COLD FRONT AND ENHANCED NWLY/NLY
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS SHOW A LIKELY SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE VA/NC
   BORDER IN SRN SUFFOLK COUNTY VA MOVING SEWD INTO NRN GATES COUNTY NC
   WITH TIME...POSING A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. LATEST SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE
   ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN THIS REGION IS UNLIKELY.
   THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS ALSO UNLIKELY. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD COOL THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...REDUCE INSTABILITY...AND LESSEN THE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36787744 36897668 36847594 36277566 35747542 35117538
               35237642 35567732 35997842 36337862 36647844 36827823
               36787744 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2016
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