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Mesoscale Discussion 889
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 042225Z - 050100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...MOIST...THOUGH WEAK...UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES N OF A
   STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEAR TAD TO BETWEEN SPD AND LAA TO S
   OF GLD. SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60-64F TO
   THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND E OF A LONGITUDE NEAR LA JUNTA...WHICH
   ARE QUITE HIGH FOR THESE ELEVATIONS. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
   8.8 C/KM MEASURED BY THE 12Z DNR AND DDC RAOBS...CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY IS STRONG TO VERY STRONG N OF THE STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER S WHERE STRONGER PBL MIXING
   HAS OCCURRED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED
   CIRCULATIONS ARE PRESENT...WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY BEING REPORTED S
   OF PUB. THOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
   ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WHERE ISOLATED/SPOTTY HIGH-BASED CUMULI
   EXIST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ON AN
   ISOLATED BASIS.

   GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR TSTMS WILL
   EXIST...DESPITE ONLY 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING
   ONLY MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY
   OCCUR. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN BACKED/ELY SFC
   WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH LENGTH/SRH AND THE TORNADO RISK WILL
   BE LIMITED BY WEAK FLOW MAGNITUDE. REGARDLESS...WITH WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY IMPLYING A DEARTH OF DEEP ASCENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
   THE OVERALL SVR RISK MAY BE QUITE SPARSE.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37070402 37890464 38540482 38920448 38440409 38450306
               38190199 37240185 37070402 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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