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Mesoscale Discussion 889
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....AND
   NORTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080255Z - 080500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED...THEN
   WEAKENED...ACROSS SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
   THUNDERSTORM WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED /AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED/ ACROSS SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
   ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/K AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 45
   KNOTS...THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE
   WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS AND
   INDIANA/. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.

   MUCH LATER TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS AN
   UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS/ ACCELERATES
   EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34799611 35309589 35599536 35599465 35359398 34799357
               34089356 33479394 33419465 33559520 33859578 34329614
               34799611 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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