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Mesoscale Discussion 891
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 050110Z - 050215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WINDS
   MAY DEVELOP INTO NERN AND E-CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES SWD.  AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL RISK MAY CONTINUE
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN PORTIONS OF NEB.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM OJC WNWWD TO 30 MI SE CNK AND ARCING NWWD TO 10 MI WSW
   EAR.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN KS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT
   FAVORING THE WRN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
   EARLIER-DAY CONVECTION.  A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SAMPLED
   BY THE 00 UTC TOP RAOB /13 G PER KG LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/
   BENEATH 7 DEG C H7-5 LAPSE RATES AMIDST A VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL
   LIKELY PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THE COLD POOL.  AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED
   WIND-DAMAGE RISK WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE WRN HALF OF THE
   TSTM COMPLEX WHERE ACCESS TO STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL
   EXIST.  

   FARTHER N IN S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 30 KT H85
   SLY FLOW ATOP A COLD POOL IN WAKE OF THE NERN KS ACTIVITY HAS
   RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS EXHIBITING SEVERE-HAIL
   SIGNATURES PER WDSS-II IMAGERY.  THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR THE I-80 VICINITY ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAIN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN NEB. 
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER KUEX AND THE 00 UTC OAX RAOB COUPLED
   WITH A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE THREAT
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39249543 38829500 38169493 37829534 37939617 38349688
               39049738 40669902 40999889 41379698 40979632 40579637
               40429794 39719701 39249543 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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