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Mesoscale Discussion 892
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...central NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 280617Z - 280715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for isolated 50-60 mph gusts with a thunderstorm
   cluster within the remnants of a long-lived squall line may continue
   east of severe thunderstorm watch 288.  It appears the need for an
   additional watch is relatively low given the concentrated/isolated
   nature of the overall threat.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a strong to locally severe
   thunderstorm cluster over west-central NC with a MCV located near
   the VA/NC/TN border.  The larger-scale convective complex will
   continue to move east aided by unidirectional westerly flow and 50
   kt at 500 mb per KRAX VAD data.  A corridor of modestly steep
   700-500 mb lapse rates still resides across central NC and will
   likely assist in storm sustenance despite gradual cooling of the
   boundary layer.  Surface analysis indicates low to middle 60s
   degrees F dewpoints are in the Piedmont whereas farther east towards
   the I-95 corridor slightly richer moisture resides (upper 60s).  It
   remains unclear how far east a wind-damage risk will occur. 
   Convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 05/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36028108 35957907 35337858 34827915 35168114 36028108 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2017
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