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Mesoscale Discussion 892
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081532Z - 081730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
   ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDING ELEVATED CONVECTION
   ACROSS WEST TX IN THE WAKE OF LATE NIGHT MCS.  NUMEROUS
   SHOWERS...LIKELY ROOTED AOA 800MB...ARE INCREASING ATOP RAIN-COOLED
   AIRMASS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...NWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. 
   LATEST WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS HAIL NEAR ONE INCH IS NOTED WITH
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER GAINES COUNTY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
   EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND OTHER CLUSTERS COULD
   EVOLVE/STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.  12Z
   SOUNDING AT MAF EXHIBITS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 8
   C/KM...THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND THIS SUPPORTS ONGOING
   ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.  ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD FESTER
   ACROSS THIS REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33760172 33170006 31380038 31420210 33280308 33760172 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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