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Mesoscale Discussion 892
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0820 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 050120Z - 050345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME SVR-TSTM RISK
   THIS EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW REMAINS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED TO A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
   TSTM NOW OVER SERN ELBERT COUNTY EXTENDS WWD/WNWWD FROM THE RFD OF
   THE STORM THROUGH NRN EL PASO COUNTY TO THE FRONT RANGE SW OF CASTLE
   ROCK. A CONTINUED STREAM OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S/ FROM THE E/ESE CONTINUES
   TO BE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN SURMOUNTING H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM PER THE 00Z DNR RAOB...MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
   TSTM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUCH RISK WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED
   E/W FROM N OF SPD TO N OF TAD.

   POSSIBLE INITIATION MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY STEM FROM
   ASCENT INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
   MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED INTENSE CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW/RELATED ENHANCED SRH. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
   THAT THE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WOULD EVENTUALLY REACH PARTS OF
   CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...LIMITED
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND EVENTUAL STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL MLCINH MAY
   PROVE DELETERIOUS TOWARD MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAINABILITY AFTER DUSK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37580231 37520425 38150506 38650516 38930500 38950444
               38430416 38360224 37580231 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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