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Mesoscale Discussion 893
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 255...

   VALID 050220Z - 050415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 255 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
   255...AND MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.

   DISCUSSION...RICH MOISTURE ON UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES EXTENDS FROM THE
   HIGH PLAINS TO THE CO/WY FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH
   SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
   EXTENDING W OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
   CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE UPSLOPE-FLOW REGIME FROM
   AROUND FORT COLLINS TO BOULDER TO DENVER. WITH MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT EMERGING
   OVER THE MCD AREA FROM THE SW...THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FACILITATE AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER
   PLAINS. AS SUCH...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE 04Z NOMINAL WW
   EXPIRATION TIME...AND POTENTIALLY PERSIST LATER IN THE NIGHT.

   THE INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PROCESSING AND NOCTURNAL
   DIABATIC SFC COOLING SHOULD FOSTER GAINS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC
   STABILITY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MARGINALIZING THE OVERALL
   TORNADO POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY AFTER 04Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   8.5-9.5-C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE SAMPLED BY THE DNR AND GJT 00Z
   RAOBS...APPRECIABLE UPWARD CONVECTIVE ACCELERATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BREED LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 35 KT OF DEEP
   SHEAR WILL FURTHER ENCOURAGE SUCH POTENTIAL IN ANY SUSTAINED
   ROTATING TSTMS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS TO PERSIST BEYOND
   04Z...LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WW MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPLACEMENT
   WW TO SVR TSTM WATCH COULD ALSO BE AN OPTION GIVEN THE SVR-HAZARD
   TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A LARGE-HAIL CONCERN -- IF A
   LONGER-DURATION SVR-TSTM RISK WERE TO BECOME EVIDENT.

   ..COHEN.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38950386 39370514 41270550 41740415 41090325 39340328
               38950386 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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