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Mesoscale Discussion 894
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0894
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...portions of northern Texas east across the Arklatex
   region...and north into eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

   Valid 280753Z - 281000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk continues in and near WW 289.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convective outflow sagging
   south across north Texas, in advance of a west-to-east band of
   storms extending from the Montague/Jack/Wise County vicinity
   eastward, roughly along the Red River.  Meanwhile, a somewhat
   disorganized bowing segment on the eastern fringe of the
   aforementioned Red River band of storms continues moving east across
   southwest AR.  

   Convection continues moving generally eastward across southwest
   Arkansas, but has been more hesitant to expand southward, likely due
   to capping -- evident on both FWD and SHV 00Z RAOBs.  While ascent
   associated with the convective outflow is likely acting to gradually
   weaken the cap, diurnal diabatic cooling of the boundary layer is
   acting in opposition, i.e. providing an at least somewhat-offsetting
   increase in inhibition for surface-based parcels.

   Overall, CAM guidance suggests the capping issue, with little hint
   of appreciable southward spread of storms over the next few hours. 
   Though largely not modeling the existing convection well, the lack
   of convection south of the Red River vicinity within the model
   solutions add some credence to the idea that the southward spread of
   storms into Louisiana, and additional expansion of severe risk
   across north Texas, will likely be slow to occur, with an overall
   decrease in convective intensity likely to gradually manifest over
   the next several hours.  Where storms are ongoing however, and
   immediately to the south and east, risk for large hail and locally
   damaging winds persists.

   Farther north into east central OK, a few elevated storms developed
   earlier, posing isolated large-hail risk, but this convection has
   trended downward over the past hour and additional increases in this
   activity appear unlikely at this time.

   ..Goss.. 05/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32929773 33289801 33599795 33759717 33829656 34139607
               34569608 34889614 35319609 35709590 35599494 35579419
               35069413 34349409 33919329 33079196 32619218 32559397
               32929773 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2017
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