Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017
Areas affected...portions of northern Texas east across the Arklatex
region...and north into eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...
Valid 280753Z - 281000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
SUMMARY...Severe risk continues in and near WW 289.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convective outflow sagging
south across north Texas, in advance of a west-to-east band of
storms extending from the Montague/Jack/Wise County vicinity
eastward, roughly along the Red River. Meanwhile, a somewhat
disorganized bowing segment on the eastern fringe of the
aforementioned Red River band of storms continues moving east across
Convection continues moving generally eastward across southwest
Arkansas, but has been more hesitant to expand southward, likely due
to capping -- evident on both FWD and SHV 00Z RAOBs. While ascent
associated with the convective outflow is likely acting to gradually
weaken the cap, diurnal diabatic cooling of the boundary layer is
acting in opposition, i.e. providing an at least somewhat-offsetting
increase in inhibition for surface-based parcels.
Overall, CAM guidance suggests the capping issue, with little hint
of appreciable southward spread of storms over the next few hours.
Though largely not modeling the existing convection well, the lack
of convection south of the Red River vicinity within the model
solutions add some credence to the idea that the southward spread of
storms into Louisiana, and additional expansion of severe risk
across north Texas, will likely be slow to occur, with an overall
decrease in convective intensity likely to gradually manifest over
the next several hours. Where storms are ongoing however, and
immediately to the south and east, risk for large hail and locally
damaging winds persists.
Farther north into east central OK, a few elevated storms developed
earlier, posing isolated large-hail risk, but this convection has
trended downward over the past hour and additional increases in this
activity appear unlikely at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32929773 33289801 33599795 33759717 33829656 34139607
34569608 34889614 35319609 35709590 35599494 35579419
35069413 34349409 33919329 33079196 32619218 32559397