MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF GA/SC/NC/VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...
   
   VALID 292201Z - 292300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF WW315.
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES AHEAD OF
   AN EWD PROGRESSING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF VORTICITY
   MAXIMUMS ROTATING WITH THE TROUGH. ONE VORT MAX NOW APPROACHING WRN
   VA/NC APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FAVORABLE ASCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
   THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE
   CURRENT WATCH. HOWEVER...CLEARING CU FIELD SEEMS TO BE INDICATIVE OF
   SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION...AND MAY
   LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF CLEARING...25 TO 30 KTS EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...AND LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP EWD OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN.
   
   FARTHER S...GIVEN MODEST SWLY FLOW...THE SEA BREEZE HAS REMAINED
   SOMEWHAT CONFINED TO THE SC/GA COASTS. BRIEF INCREASES IN STORM
   INTENSITY WERE NOTED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND REACHED THE
   SEA BREEZE FRONT. FURTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE ANVIL DEBRIS AND
   COOLING/STABILIZATION AT THE SURFACE NEAR CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE
   AREAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A LIMITED WINDOW FOR
   ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
   GSP...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   31717914 31668223 37547905 37497553 31717914