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Mesoscale Discussion 895
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC...ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081645Z - 081915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR-TSTM RISK WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED ZONE
   OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COLLOCATED WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SFC
   DEWPOINTS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF SC TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA. ASCENT
   WITHIN THIS ZONE...LOCALLY ENHANCED INVOF A REMNANT MCV CROSSING SRN
   SC...AND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL
   SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
   THROUGH THE DAY. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z CHS RAOB INDICATE AROUND
   1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE.
   WHILE WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DISORGANIZED
   CONVECTION...VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AOB 3 KM AGL PER
   CAE/CLX VWPS...COUPLED WITH AROUND 15-20 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS...MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. WHILE CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE OVERALL SVR RISK WILL BE
   LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT AND LACK OF STRONGER
   BACKGROUND FLOW.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32388017 30898190 31808212 34518302 35098263 34998137
               33558017 32388017 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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