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Mesoscale Discussion 896
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NCNTRL AND NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 051849Z - 052015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ECNTRL CO
   AND SE WY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB LOW OVER SE CO
   WITH BACKED SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO EXTENDING NWWD INTO SERN
   WY WHERE ANOTHER SFC LOW IS LOCATED. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   SEVERAL POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE
   ANALYSIS DATA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE ERN EDGE
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE DENVER AREA AND TO THE WEST OF TRINIDAD
   NEAR THE CO-NM STATE-LINE. CONCERNING THE SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS AT DENVER AND PUEBLO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 6 KM WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   ESTIMATED IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS.
   ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL...ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42220374 40930294 38440283 37460311 37070416 37430492
               38120526 40270529 40990553 41660687 42360764 43050741
               43280686 43300629 43190560 42800458 42220374 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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