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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ORE/SRN WA EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO NERN ORE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292224Z - 292330Z
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ORE/SRN WA...AND SOME THREAT ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER NERN ORE.
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRANSLATING ALONG THE
NWRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ORE/SRN WA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ORE/SRN WA CASCADES AND EWD TO NERN
ORE WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE UP TO
1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE RATHER
WEAK...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SSWLY WINDS ARE SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...
WHILE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL
AS WELL.
SHEAR IS WEAKER WITH EWD EXTENT /INTO NERN ORE/ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/29/2009
ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...SEW...PQR...
LAT...LON 43802191 45102170 46182151 46692127 46552052 45952020
45831975 45981841 45671753 44931744 44431833 43652142
43802191
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