Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 896
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 896 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081720Z - 081945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1007-MB LOW BETWEEN
   COLUMBUS AND MANSFIELD OHIO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NY AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
   OF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT -- E.G. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
   POTENTIAL BUOYANCY OWING TO A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW -- REF. 12Z BNA RAOB DEPICTING
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 7 C/KM -- AND A FEED OF INSOLATION-STEEPENED
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM WV INTO SWRN PA. 

   SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND
   A LEADING BAND OF WAA-RELATED CONVECTION IN WRN PA...AIDED BY SFC
   CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   WHILE ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE ILN/PBZ VWPS
   SUGGESTS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   STORMS. DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE WHERE SFC
   WINDS ARE MORE BACKED -- I.E. E OF A CONFLUENCE AXIS DRAWN N/S OVER
   WRN PA AND INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME SVR RISK
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR W AS CENTRAL OHIO...THE GREATEST SVR RISK
   AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FAR ERN
   OHIO EWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO
   EXIST.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39988264 40918205 41658051 41897895 41627814 40677773
               39297872 38598092 38718200 39278252 39988264 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 08, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities