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Mesoscale Discussion 897
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AZ...SRN UT...FAR SWRN CO...AND FAR
   NWRN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051936Z - 052130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
   OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AZ/SRN UT SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO 70S AMIDST DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AN
   UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE MCD AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
   CA IS PROVIDING BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND AN
   INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE AND
   RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN
   AZ. WITH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURRING AMIDST BREAKS IN CLOUD
   COVER...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...MLCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED...AND A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

   LAT...LON   35201097 35631193 36111251 36401301 36511383 37151389
               37881389 38391296 39171113 39111064 38740985 38110876
               36420875 35420978 35201097 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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