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Mesoscale Discussion 898
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052011Z - 052115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   ECNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE
   TOTALLY RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW OVER FAR SE
   CO WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR EL PASO WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED
   BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ALONG
   AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR THE CAPITAN MTNS IN SE NM AND
   TO THE EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NCNTRL NM. SFC
   DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 50S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   ANALYZED ACROSS ECNTRL NM BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...THE
   WSR-88D VWP AT ALBUQUERQUE SHOWS MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 35
   TO 40 KT OF SWLY FLOW AT 6 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAINLY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON
   MORNING SOUNDINGS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF
   SHORT LINE SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32070373 31720430 32140506 33350542 34870544 36580496
               36870440 36950364 36840311 36200295 35130311 34000344
               33210348 32070373 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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