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Mesoscale Discussion 898
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081757Z - 082030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL
   CIRCULATIONS...STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND ASCENT
   ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED ALONG THE FL/GA
   BORDER...WILL ALL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODIFICATIONS TO MIAMI AND TAMPA BAY
   12Z RAOBS INDICATE SBCAPE ALREADY AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S...SUPPORTING INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. THE TAMPA RAOB INDICATED 25-30-KT NLYS IN THE
   H7-H5 LAYER...WHICH COULD FOSTER FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE. THE
   RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE AIDED BY DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG COUPLED WITH 1.6-1.9-INCH PW PER GPS DATA TO ENHANCE WATER
   LOADING. THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
   MITIGATE A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   25108095 26828233 28468288 30358310 30528160 28638075
               26047989 25108095 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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