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Mesoscale Discussion 899
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...AND FAR WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052018Z - 052145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS UNLIKELY IN THE
   SHORT-TERM.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY. WITH
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO
   THE 80S ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S. VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST
   MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
   SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IN SRN MO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 20-30 KT WILL PROBABLY ACT TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...
   ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS THE
   MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...SOME RECENT
   CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY ATTEMPT TO
   CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/NRN AR
   BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. RADAR TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN
   THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36059330 36579408 37179451 37989408 37799282 37289070
               36808973 35958940 35268980 35009049 35369216 36059330 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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