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Mesoscale Discussion 899
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081811Z - 082045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE RISK FOR SVR STORMS ALSO
   INCREASING. THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
   REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY SWELLING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FIELD
   S/SW OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NE OF MONTGOMERY AL TO
   VALDOSTA GA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL. TEMPERATURES IN THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
   YIELDING SBCAPE AROUND 3500-5000 PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z TLH
   RAOB FEATURING NEAR-ZERO INHIBITION. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OWING TO ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG DIURNALLY
   STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND
   ASCENDING BRANCHES OF PBL CIRCULATIONS. THE VERY HIGH DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. FURTHERMORE...MODEST DEEP SHEAR ACCOMPANYING
   20-25 KT OF 4-6-KM-AGL NWLYS PER VWPS SHOULD SUPPORTING INTENSE
   MULTICELL STORMS...WITH CONGEALING COLD POOLS PERHAPS YIELDING
   LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30498733 31828820 31818702 31658431 31498333 30588309
               29348325 29628569 30498733 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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