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Mesoscale Discussion 900
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 052131Z - 060000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS A
   LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. THIS INCLUDES THE
   POTENTIAL FOR  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND E OF INTERSTATE 15 SUGGEST
   THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST FOR THESE ELEVATIONS...WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SURMOUNTING THESE DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE HAS DIURNALLY
   INCREASED TO 1000-2000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
   CUMULI BECOMING INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AND
   WIDESPREAD...WITH DEEPER TOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION EVOLVING. AS
   MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE E/ESE...AND
   GIVEN THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...A FURTHER UPTICK IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   TFX AND GGW VWPS SAMPLE AROUND 30 KT OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS SURMOUNTING
   RELATIVELY BACKED ELY/SELY NEAR-SFC WINDS...SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT
   DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
   SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS
   LIMITED OWING TO WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...THE BACKED
   NATURE OF THE SFC WINDS AND RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT
   SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE/SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELL TSTMS.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46140411 45230521 45080880 45671100 48291136 48950854
               48740476 47670413 46140411 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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