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Mesoscale Discussion 900
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northeastern North Carolina and southeastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281827Z - 281930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized severe threat is evolving in the discussion
   area currently, with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
   possible in the most organized activity.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicated increasing
   convection across the discussion area over the past hour of so in
   the wake of a lead supercell that is approaching the Virginia Beach
   area currently.  The lead cell is likely elevated, although more
   recently developing convection exhibits weak supercellular
   characteristics and are in an environment containing moderate
   (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) and favorable low- and deep shear for
   updraft rotation.  A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out in
   this scenario as long as low-level flow remains backed to
   southerly/southeasterly in the area.  Hail/wind gusts may also
   occur.  This threat will be relatively confined (spatially) as
   convection that develops in this environment will likely not have an
   extensive amount of residence time over land before moving out over
   Atlantic waters.  Convective trends will be monitored, although the
   brief/localized nature of the threat precludes a WW issuance at this
   time.

   ..Cook.. 05/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36997749 37037711 37067662 36947601 36487567 36057561
               35787582 35627622 35747678 36077737 36497781 36737788
               36847775 36997749 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2017
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