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Mesoscale Discussion 900
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...FAR SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081839Z - 082045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES IS INCREASING...AND
   THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ORIENTED E/W FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...WITH A STALLED
   BOUNDARY ARCING NE/SW FROM NERN TX TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
   EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION POINT NEAR
   PARIS TX IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3500
   J/KG. RICH MOISTURE -- E.G. UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- AND
   RELATED BUOYANCY EXTEND N OF THE E/W BOUNDARY INTO FAR SERN OK AND
   SRN AR WHERE SFC PRESSURE FALLS/DIABATIC SFC HEATING ARE DRIVING NWD
   RETREAT OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE CU FIELD BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   AGITATED IN THE WARM SECTOR...MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED NEAR
   THE BOUNDARY-INTERSECTION POINT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-
   ENCOURAGED SOLENOIDS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN AROUND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM
   BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE SHV VWP...ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...WILL BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DMGG WINDS POSSIBLE. A RISK FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL EXIST
   NEAR/N OF THE E/W BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
   SRH.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32329563 34109486 34139215 33719132 32599127 32059156
               31719267 31739438 32329563 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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