MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN WY/CO INTO WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 302218Z - 302345Z
   
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN WY/CO AND WRN KS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   EVENING.  ISOLATED NATURE OF STRONGER/SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
   
   LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM
   CENTRAL MO THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO EAST CENTRAL CO...ALONG AND JUST S
   OF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTED A LEE TROUGH IN CO.
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500
   J/KG/ FROM KS WWD INTO ERN CO....WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXTENDING
   NWD INTO WY.  LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
   LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BENEATH STRONGER WLY UPPER LEVEL
   WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AT BEST MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 30
   KT/.  THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MEAN FLOW SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   PULSE AND SLOW MOVING.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
   SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /30-40 DEGREES/...AND DCAPE 1000-1500
   J/KG SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/30/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
   
   LAT...LON   37870123 38300253 38520383 38460487 38870519 40160528
               40970540 42040598 43030623 43780629 44040607 43700517
               42950440 42180392 41150383 40350369 39820298 39340067
               38840033 38340009 37870123