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Mesoscale Discussion 901
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/NRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 052208Z - 060045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SVR-TSTM RISK INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NE OF A DIFFUSE MIXING
   BOUNDARY/TROUGH ANALYZED NW/SE FROM NEAR YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
   TO NE OF RWL TO W OF LAR...MAY CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE ERN RIM OF A CYCLONE OVER SRN CA IS
   SUPPORTING AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR BASED ON THE RIW VWP. WHEN
   COMBINED WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE
   MOIST/NE SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...INTENSE/ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   CONCERNS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GIVEN COMPLEX
   FLOW-TERRAIN INTERACTIONS AND RELATED MESO-BETA/GAMMA SCALE
   ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SRH AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
   A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK
   ARE WIDESPREAD ANVIL DEBRIS AND ASSOCIATED STUNTED INSTABILITY
   ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR CPR...ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF MORE
   ROBUST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42260611 42870810 44100929 44850923 44930687 44670423
               42660445 42260611 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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