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Mesoscale Discussion 902
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL TX...FAR SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081943Z - 082215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SVR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY
   WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL SELYS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM...WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO THE S OF ONGOING ELEVATED
   CONVECTION COVERING THE TX S PLAINS/NRN PERMIAN BASIN. THE AIR MASS
   S OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPERIENCING MODEST DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
   POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THE
   GENERALLY FLAT NATURE OF THE CU FIELD PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS
   BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...RECENT SIGNS OF CLEARING/MIXING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN
   NOTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...WITH
   INSOLATION-ENHANCED SFC HEATING SUPPORTING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS AT THE ERN EDGE OF 8-9-C/KM
   SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE TX TRANS-PECOS...WITH
   INTENSE CONVECTION RECENTLY HAVING DEVELOPED INVOF THE DAVIS
   MOUNTAINS.

   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL BOLSTER
   SOLENOIDS OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED
   CONVECTION...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP EWD FROM TERRAIN-DRIVEN
   CIRCULATIONS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-55 KT WILL FAVOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. STORMS COULD
   EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS SPREADING EWD. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
   ENHANCING SRH WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL.
   HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK MAY BE SUPPRESSED...ALTHOUGH
   ENVIRONMENTAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29859944 29530206 30430374 31580416 32580293 32039982
               31399864 29859944 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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