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Mesoscale Discussion 902
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN CO / FAR SWRN NEB / WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 052222Z - 052315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD BEYOND THE ERN BOUND OF
   TORNADO WATCH 258.  A NEW WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG A FINE LINE FROM NEAR LIC SWD TO 25
   MI WSW LAA.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS IN THE 80 TO 90 DEG
   RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN KS TO THE LOWER-MID
   60S OVER E-CNTRL CO.  VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IN
   THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER KGLD VAD DATA WILL SUPPORT AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM RISK WHEN COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
   BUOYANCY.  AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST RISK APPEARS TO
   LIKELY EXTEND INTO THE AREAS E OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH.  THE
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED NEAR AND N OF I-70 WHERE BACKED ELY
   FLOW N OF A LOW NEAR LAA IS SERVING TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 
   THE LARGE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY LEND THE RISK FOR
   A TORNADO OR TWO WITH AN INTENSE SUPERCELL.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39460297 40540263 40710214 40370161 39680154 37980091
               37180107 37020191 38660205 38670307 39460297 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2015
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