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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX...SCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131825Z - 132100Z
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX. A
WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR ICT...WITH COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OK. A DRYLINE IS MIXING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WESTERN OK...WITH THE INTERSECTION OF
THE DRYLINE AND FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
COMANCHE/GRADY/MCCLAIN COUNTIES OK IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 18Z
SOUNDING FROM FWD SHOWS THAT CAP IS ERODING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...AND MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS BACK ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR SOON ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN
DUE TO RATHER WEAK 1-3 KM AGL WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES EARLY IN
LIFECYCLE OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.
..HART.. 05/13/2008
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
33349918 34819811 35439718 34969693 33099737 32089826
31879945 32119991 32619972
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