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Mesoscale Discussion 903
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052337Z - 060130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS
   CONTINUES INCREASING. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL OVERLAP OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ERN RIM OF A CYCLONE OVER SRN CA PER
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WITH PEAK HEATING OVER CNTRL/ERN AZ...IS
   FACILITATING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. A SMALL...PERSISTENT
   CELL IS MOVING INTO GILA COUNTY...AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA
   TO N OF TUCSON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY...AS SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
   SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN NON-CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED
   AIR/POCKETS OF INSOLATION. VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SAMPLE 40-55 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL SWLYS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR CONTINUED
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS APPROACHING/REACHING MARGINALLY SVR
   LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE PAUCITY OF
   BUOYANCY...ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32671229 33551245 36091190 36891068 36330937 33750957
               32791059 32671229 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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