MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX...SCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 131825Z - 132100Z
   
   CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX.  A
   WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR ICT...WITH COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OK.  A DRYLINE IS MIXING
   EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WESTERN OK...WITH THE INTERSECTION OF
   THE DRYLINE AND FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
   COMANCHE/GRADY/MCCLAIN COUNTIES OK IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  18Z
   SOUNDING FROM FWD SHOWS THAT CAP IS ERODING ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...AND MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBS BACK ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR SOON ALONG
   THESE BOUNDARIES.  DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND VERY STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND WILL
   LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TORNADO THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN
   DUE TO RATHER WEAK 1-3 KM AGL WIND FIELDS.  HOWEVER...VEERING LOW
   LEVEL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES EARLY IN
   LIFECYCLE OF INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..HART.. 05/13/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   33349918 34819811 35439718 34969693 33099737 32089826
   31879945 32119991 32619972