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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OK THRU MUCH OF ERN KS/WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 132151Z - 132315Z
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED FOR INCREASING INSOLATION WITHIN
A NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
KANSAS CITY MO METROPOLITAN AREA. COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THIS
AXIS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AND...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
COOLING...NOW UNDERWAY...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING INHIBITION.
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE RUC...SUGGEST THAT A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN A BROAD BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A COUPLING OF TWO OF THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LIFT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THROUGH THE 14/00-03Z TIME FRAME.
THIS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH NOW SEEMS GRADUALLY
UNDERWAY. AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 05/13/2008
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
37249639 37839642 38859555 39169450 38409398 37039425
35879589 36119672
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