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Mesoscale Discussion 904
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0904
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern South Carolina into southern
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282056Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An area of developing thunderstorms emerging from the
   piedmont of South Carolina may pose increasing severe weather
   potential across parts of the Carolina coastal plain around Myrtle
   Beach SC and Wilmington NC by 7-9 PM EDT.  Trends will be monitored
   for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within the
   axis of stronger surface heating across the piedmont of South
   Carolina.  This appears to be in response to moderate boundary layer
   destabilization (CAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg), and perhaps forcing for
   ascent associated with a mid-level speed maximum now beginning to
   progress east northeast of the southern Appalachians.  In the
   presence of favorable deep layer shear beneath 50 kt westerly 500 mb
   flow, further convective development and intensification appears
   possible through 23-01Z.  A small organizing cluster of
   thunderstorms may evolve, much as suggested by the latest high
   resolution Rapid Refresh.  And if this occurs, it probably will be
   accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts, in
   addition to severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34388162 34668030 34867916 34897831 33977805 33827814
               33397970 33618155 34388162 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2017
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