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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY...SRN OH...WV AND FAR SWRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...317...
VALID 310337Z - 310400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
316...317...CONTINUES.
PARTS OF WW 316 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED BY WFO/S BEYOND 04Z
EXPIRATION. WW 317 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY /PRIOR TO 06Z/ AS MUCH OF
THE TSTM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THIS WATCH.
RECENT TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE
INHIBITION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH
GENERALLY ISOLATED...LOCATED FROM SRN IND INTO WRN KY. THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE GREATER SOURCE OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH THESE STORMS BEING FED
BY A 30-40 KT WLY LLJ. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDANT MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED
MAX SPREADS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS KY
BENEATH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER FLOW
REGIME ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY FROM SRN IND INTO CENTRAL/ERN KY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT REMAINS CLOSER TO INFLOW OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
..PETERS.. 05/31/2009
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 37138578 37638779 39728617 39478491 39578322 39508170
39158073 37848108 36908213 36828459 37138578
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