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Mesoscale Discussion 905
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...

   VALID 060041Z - 060245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR HAIL/WIND RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 259.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EVOLVING ACROSS
   THE WATCH AREA AT PRESENT...AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. THE GGW RAOB SAMPLES AROUND 1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE ASSOCIATED
   WITH A RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR ITS ELEVATION.
   IN FACT...THIS RAOB SAMPLED PW AROUND 1.2 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE
   90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON OBSERVED SOUNDING
   CLIMATOLOGY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND
   UNCAPPED FOR CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE/REDEVELOPMENT DESPITE ONLY MODEST
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. GIVEN AROUND 25-30
   KT OF DEEP BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE RAOB AND AREA VWPS...ORGANIZED
   TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN OF CONCERN. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GREATLY MITIGATE
   THE TORNADO RISK...BUT THE BACKED/ELY COMPONENT OF THE SFC WINDS MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE/SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CONVECTION.

   ..COHEN.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45040965 48981022 48970407 45000406 45040965 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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