MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN VA...EXTREME SRN WV...ERN KY...SMALL
   PART OF EXTREME N-CENTRAL NC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 310654Z - 310900Z
   
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
   POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS...AS WELL AS WIND
   GUSTS THAT REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA BUT ARE CAPABLE
   OF MINOR NON-VEGETATIVE DAMAGE AND OVERTURNING WEAK/SHALLOW-ROOTED
   TREES.  ONCE THOSE LOCALLY EXTENDED PORTIONS OF WW 316
   EXPIRE...PRIND SVR THREAT WILL BECOME TOO MRGL AND SPORADIC TO
   WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   QUASISTATIONARY/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM ONGOING
   COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER SRN WV AND EXTREME ERN KY ENEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL VA.  MAIN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS BLUE RIDGE
   REGION TOWARD AREA BETWEEN ROA-LYH-DAN...NEAR AND S OF FRONT. 
   OTHER...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
   CENTRAL KY SW-SSE OF LEX IN NRN FRINGES OF 30-40 KT WLY LLJ
   SUPPLYING ELEVATED/HIGH-THETAE INFLOW.  35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDE HAS AIDED IN STORM ORGANIZATION...AND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
   AS LONG AS CAPE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT TO SAMPLE BOTH NEAR-SFC AIR JUST
   BELOW LLJ AND 50 KT UPPER/ANVIL LEVEL FLOW.  MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG
   WITH WEAK MLCINH IS EVIDENT OVER E-CENTRAL KY...FAR SWRN VA AND
   PORTIONS SRN WV BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  BUOYANCY WEAKENS
   AND CINH STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT OVER VA. 
   REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY MAXIMIZE ALONG NW-FACING
   SLOPES...AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS CLOSER TO ORIGIN OF DOWNDRAFTS. 
   OTHERWISE DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL GENERALLY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
   TIME AS CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC COOLING STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS LAYER OF
   STATIC STABILITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   36758256 37238408 37708497 37888510 37918438 38118329
               37838224 37508133 37488050 37567964 37267852 36797836
               36387892 36598116 36688236 36758256