MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA/VIRGINIA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE
   COASTAL PLAIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 311848Z - 312045Z
   
   THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ALTHOUGH SUPPRESSED BY GENERALLY SUBSIDENT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF AN
   UPPER IMPULSE NOW MIGRATING EAST OF COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  IT APPEARS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL
   COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SUBTLE UPSTREAM WAVE MAY BE
   CONTRIBUTING TO THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A
   BROAD...BUT PERHAPS SHARPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
   INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SIZABLE LOWER/MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000
   J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHILE CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...APPEARS TO BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF WEAKENING...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AS THEY
   SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/31/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35378102 35848018 36427945 37247910 37797855 38457778
               38407735 38067664 36437674 35177775 34247915 33588025
               33308084 33398173 34578193 35378102