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Mesoscale Discussion 906
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN INTO E-CNTRL AR / NWRN MS / SWRN PORTION OF
   WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

   VALID 060217Z - 060315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
   AS THE LEADING BAND OF STORMS NEAR MEMPHIS HAS WEAKENED.  IT APPEARS
   ONLY A LIMITED STRONG STORM RISK REMAINS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS SHOWN A
   SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING IN STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
   POOL FROM EARLIER STRONG-SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR.  KMEM
   RECENTLY OBSERVED A NON-SEVERE WIND GUST OF 36 KT AT 0211 UTC.  

   THE PROSPECTS FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE DECAYING GUST
   FRONT/COLD POOL NEAR MEM ARE DECREASING GIVEN ADDITIONAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING IS FORECAST AND A GRADUAL DECOUPLING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED.  WHILE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY
   OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ARE LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE COOL
   DOME...DECREASING BUOYANCY WITH TIME WILL PROBABLY RENDER ONLY A
   LIMITED RISK FOR A STRONG STORM.  IF A REINTENSIFICATION IN STORMS
   DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH CAN LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME /0600 UTC/.

   ..SMITH.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   33689027 33689029 34069223 34849276 35729294 36069294
               36119294 36499287 36509284 36509283 36509251 36509215
               36509144 36509141 36509141 36259031 35958941 35938938
               35908934 35908934 34598873 34068872 33818872 33758893
               33748902 33728919 33689027 33689027 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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