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Mesoscale Discussion 907
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...

   VALID 060242Z - 060415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN WW 259...AND IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE ERN THIRD OF MONTANA.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING PRIMARILY CONFINED
   TO AREAS E OF A LINE FROM GLASGOW TO BILLINGS...WHERE GPS DATA
   INDICATE THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE -- I.E.
   PW AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40
   KT OF DEEP SHEAR WILL YIELD SOME RISK FOR SUSTAINED/ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS WITH SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL
   COOLING/STABILIZATION AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE INTERACTIONS
   DELETERIOUS TO MAINTENANCE OF SUSTAINED ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY DEPLETE
   THIS RISK. FARTHER W...DRIER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE
   LACK OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD POOLS/MESOSCALE ASCENT SHOULD
   GREATLY MITIGATE THE SVR RISK INTO THE LATE EVENING
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS MLCINH NOCTURNALLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE.
   NEITHER WW EXTENSION...NOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE...ARE EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46590881 48830648 48070434 45440484 45220833 46590881 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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