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Mesoscale Discussion 907
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN
   MD...FAR ERN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082051Z - 082245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF SFC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING EWD ACROSS OHIO. MLCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG EXISTS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ENHANCED BY
   RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S -- AND BOUNDED TO THE E BY RAIN-COOLED/CLOUDY AIR.
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES -- PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY -- WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
   THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE
   ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PBZ VWP SAMPLES
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WITH 25-30-KT
   MID-LEVEL WSWLYS. THESE FACTORS WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY
   TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY BOWING...AND PERHAPS
   ONE OR TWO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...AND A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW LCLS AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER
   BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40128090 41697965 41737866 41097837 39277913 38968050
               39358107 40128090 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2014
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