Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017
Areas affected...Central IN...Northern OH...Northwest PA...Western
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292...
Valid 282339Z - 290115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292
SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues in and near WW 292, but a
downward trend is expected with time and it appears that the watch
can expire at 00Z.
DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
are scattered from central IN northeastward into northwest PA and
western NY. At this time, the greatest short-term threat should be
associated with small line segments across central/northern IN,
northwest OH, and northeast OH, and also with more isolated cells
over western NY that have a history of producing hail. Convection
will likely persist well into the evening in advance of a strong
midlevel low over the northern Great Lakes, but diminishing
surface-based instability and generally marginal effective shear
should result in a diminishing trend with time.
Unless there is a short-term uptick in storm intensity, WW 292 can
probably expire at the scheduled time of 00Z, though a marginal risk
of marginal hail and isolated damaging wind may persist for a couple
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40618658 41088470 41858164 42777908 42337827 41277932
41048038 40588212 40388338 40218442 39788526 39318604