MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 012030Z - 012230Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN
   NM AND WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR MORE
   ORGANIZED STORMS AND A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM...AND ARE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TX
   BORDER.  OTHER HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
   SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.  THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE LIKELY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS ARE
   WEAK...BUT BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA BY EVENING STRENGTHENING THE
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE
   RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB...WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS AND SOME HAIL PRODUCTION.  A FEW SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
   OF STORMS AS OUTFLOWS MERGE.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   ..HART.. 06/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   33890395 35930363 36990268 36550038 33640001 32310056
               31770256 32500353 33890395