|Mesoscale Discussion 909|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017
Areas affected...South TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 290019Z - 290115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south TX
this evening. Large hail is the primary severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Extreme buoyancy has developed across south TX this
evening where MLCAPE is on the order of 4000 J/kg. Recently deep
convection has begun to develop along the US side of the middle Rio
Grande Valley just downstream of an apparent weak short-wave trough.
A considerably amount of convection has developed west of the river
and an expanding cold pool may drive a boundary into the
middle-lower Rio Grande Valley such that convection may be able to
organize. There is increasing confidence that thunderstorms will
gradually expand across the western part of CRP CWA over the next
few hours. Large hail is the greatest severe risk with this
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 27150018 28469969 28729804 27139823 26669930 27150018
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