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Mesoscale Discussion 909
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0909
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

   Areas affected...South TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290019Z - 290115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south TX
   this evening.  Large hail is the primary severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Extreme buoyancy has developed across south TX this
   evening where MLCAPE is on the order of 4000 J/kg.  Recently deep
   convection has begun to develop along the US side of the middle Rio
   Grande Valley just downstream of an apparent weak short-wave trough.
   A considerably amount of convection has developed west of the river
   and an expanding cold pool may drive a boundary into the
   middle-lower Rio Grande Valley such that convection may be able to
   organize.  There is increasing confidence that thunderstorms will
   gradually expand across the western part of CRP CWA over the next
   few hours.  Large hail is the greatest severe risk with this
   activity.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27150018 28469969 28729804 27139823 26669930 27150018 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2017
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