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Mesoscale Discussion 909
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO VALLEY TO NERN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 264...

   VALID 082334Z - 090100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 264 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS SHOULD
   ACCOMPANY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT
   BOUNDARY BETWEEN WW/S 262 AND 264. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW
   ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM AROUND 20 S SJT TO 20 N TYR AT 23Z.
   DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT WITHIN AN AREA OF GREATER
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO
   VALLEY. THIS REGION LIES ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS EJECTING S OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. THIS
   FLOW INCREASE APPEARS CONFINED TO THE WRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IN
   COMPARISON OF SJT TO GRK VWP DATA. WITHIN AT LEAST A MODERATELY
   BUOYANT AIR MASS...PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE
   HIGHER-LEVEL MOMENTUM FLOW MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERING OF SEMI-ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE IF A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CAN BECOME ROOTED ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30280027 29810116 29380255 29240341 29650374 30020381
               30630365 30690186 31360066 31689918 32399659 32259627
               31959619 31669643 30879882 30280027 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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