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Mesoscale Discussion 910
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061848Z - 062015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL NM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS AS CELLS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREATS...WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ECNTRL NM.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO
   EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWWD INTO ERN NM. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS ALLOWED
   A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS SFC TEMPS HAVE
   WARMED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING IN THE CAPITAN MTNS OF SE NM WITH OTHER CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NCNTRL NM. IN
   ADDITION TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE AMARILLO
   12Z SOUNDING...THE WSR-88D VWP AT ALBUQUERQUE SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS.
   THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS MATURE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33140469 32910523 33010570 33480606 34410604 36190537
               36610471 36440392 35390367 34230388 33140469 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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