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Mesoscale Discussion 911
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AZ...SRN UT...FAR SWRN CO...AND
   NWRN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061910Z - 062115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
   MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LIFT PROVIDED BY AN UPPER JET ON THE ERN
   SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NV. AMIDST SOME BREAKS IN
   CLOUD COVER...SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAVE GENERALLY
   WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S. COMBINED WITH RATHER MOIST LOW-LEVELS
   FOR THIS REGION...INDICATED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
   LOWER 50S...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE PER
   RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BY MODIFYING THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM FGZ
   FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

   ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
   AND 40-55 KT AROUND 6 KM AGL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT
   SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGER
   CORES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING REDUCES INSTABILITY AND LESSENS THE SEVERE RISK. IN
   ADDITION...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
   VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE. REGARDLESS...DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

   LAT...LON   35861182 36111222 37261238 37951109 37190870 36980656
               35040678 34420932 34691044 35861182 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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