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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/N CNTRL AND NERN KS/SRN IA/NRN MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 012225Z - 020030Z
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN IN A W-E ORIENTED BAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATES AOA AN INCH AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...2500 TO 3000 J/KG MLCAPE PER RECENT
MESOANALYSIS. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/RICH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE
BOUNDARY AS A SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ALLOW ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO BUILD NWD. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR/FLOW REMAINS ALIGNED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOW A
BROAD SWATH OF INCH TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RATES...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
..HURLBUT.. 06/01/2009
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39689634 39479782 39709883 40189890 40589832 40849756
41189565 41209321 40979158 40179172 39969332 39689634
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