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Mesoscale Discussion 912
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NE NEB...NW IA...FAR SW MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061932Z - 062100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN SD AND
   NE NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW
   ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL
   SD WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NEB. SLY FLOW IS
   LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN SD AND ECNTRL NEB
   WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO
   MESOANALYSIS DATA. IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY MAX IS EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES
   FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS
   NCNTRL NEB AND SRN SD...AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT-TERM
   MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY 20Z JUST
   AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN NCNTRL NEB AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NERN NEB
   AND FAR SERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WSR-88D VWP AT OMAHA SHOWS
   AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW
   4 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS NE NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44389928 44649841 44299685 43769591 42949559 42199564
               41369690 41069808 41049917 41509975 42639978 43739992
               44389928 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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