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Mesoscale Discussion 912
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
   CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262...

   VALID 090047Z - 090215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST PAST 02 UTC. A NEW WATCH
   MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
   AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
   GENERATED/REINFORCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS/NIGHTS OF CONVECTION. THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH MAY BE AUGMENTED BY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA/
   ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   2000-3000 J/KG/ AND SHEARED /DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS/
   ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   THUNDERSTORMS UPDRAFTS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT LASTING PAST THE
   EXPIRATION OF WATCH 262 AT 02Z...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 262.

   ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL THAT CAN RESIDE WITHIN THE ZONE OF BACKED SURFACE WINDS ON
   THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST
   TORNADO RISK.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32909470 34369416 34119076 34058823 32238845 31998989
               31189178 31159425 32359470 32909470 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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