|Mesoscale Discussion 914|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017
Areas affected...deep south Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...
Valid 290702Z - 290900Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
SUMMARY...A bowing band of storms continues moving east across deep
south Texas (within WW 297) where local severe risk continues.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a bowing cluster of
storms that remains well-organized from a reflectivity perspective,
but which continues moving east at a rather modest 30 kt. Recent
wind measurements from affected observation sites have been below
severe levels (around 40 mph), while MRMS MESH continues to suggest
only marginally severe hail at best. With weak mid-level flow
across this area likely contributing to a somewhat limited severe
risk, the well-organized nature of the convective cluster and
favorable thermodynamic environment ahead of the storms (mixed-layer
CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg across the area) suggest that local risk
for severe weather will persist until storms move offshore over the
next 2-3 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 27489870 28229859 28279661 27269730 25929701 25759735
26009865 26389931 26989849 27489870
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