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Mesoscale Discussion 914
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND THE SWRN NEB
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 062014Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM OVER THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND SERN WY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   DEPICTS SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES NOW GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
   80S. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC
   LEE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PORTIONS OF ERN CO...AND
   EVENTUALLY NWRN KS AND THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE WHERE MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG WILL RESIDE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE WLY TODAY
   COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS A SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES NEWD
   WITH TIME AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS. 

   STRONG SPEED SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING
   CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW
   GIVEN VEERED SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER AREA VWPS. HOWEVER...A SMALL
   AREA OF ELY SFC WINDS REMAINS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IN CO PER
   RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS
   AREA IS NON-ZERO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38640210 38610386 38670454 39700505 40370499 40720461
               41120301 41370178 40190121 38880109 38640210 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2015
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