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Mesoscale Discussion 915
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN IA...SWRN MN...CENTRAL/ERN
   NEB...SERN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...

   VALID 062334Z - 070130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA...WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH
   ANY SUPERCELL STORM THROUGH 02Z AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
   FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTD SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
   AND E OF A SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW OVER NERN SD
   S/SWWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA AT 2330Z. THE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS THE WW AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND 25-30 KTS OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35
   KTS.

   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED
   INCREASE IN WAA...WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED
   PRIMARILY OVER NERN NEB...SERN SD AND FAR NWRN IA. VWP DATA FROM
   BOTH KFSD AND KOAX HAVE RECENTLY SAMPLED CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   AND 150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...AND THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE AS
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES...SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WITH ALL SVR HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
   TORNADO RISK WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NERN NEB/FAR NWRN
   IA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

   TSTMS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA HAVE STRUGGLED THUS
   FAR...WHERE LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS LINGERING CINH. MORE
   ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF WW VALID TIME AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42359951 43509920 44199870 44589840 44569770 44549679
               44559632 44359606 42919611 42349620 41919669 41259722
               40969740 40259750 40059764 39979839 39999918 40129969
               40249989 41509977 42359951 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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