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Mesoscale Discussion 915
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northern/central GA into SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291827Z - 292100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms developing and spreading to the
   east/northeast from east-central Alabama into central/northern
   Georgia, and eventually into western and central South Carolina may
   pose an increasing threat for damaging winds and some hail. 
   Additional storms developing in vicinity of a weak front in northern
   Georgia and/or off the higher terrain into western South Carolina
   could become strong to severe, as well.  WW issuance may be needed
   later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Objective analysis trends early this afternoon
   indicated a reduction of surface-based inhibition across GA and
   continued weakening of inhibition into SC as temperatures warmed
   into the middle 80s.  Visible satellite imagery detected this trend
   with the development of cumulus clouds across western and northern
   GA into parts of SC.  Forcing for ascent across the discussion area
   has been weak into the early afternoon, limiting vertical
   development of the cumulus.  However, an apparent midlevel impulse
   attendant to the cluster of storms currently moving through
   east-central Alabama ahead of an eastward-moving midlevel trough
   should allow for additional storms to develop into central and
   portions of northern GA, and spreading into SC.  This forcing for
   ascent is relatively weak and not expected to strengthen per
   forecast models, such that overall coverage of stronger storms could
   be limited.  However, this forcing for ascent is spreading into an
   area of stronger instability located across central into part of
   northern GA, suggesting an increase in robust storm development is
   possible.

   Effective bulk shear is already sufficient to support organized
   storms, with values of 35-45 kt, across the discussion area, where
   additional surface heating will aid in greater destabilization. 
   This abundant sunshine will further steepen low-level lapse rates,
   and combined with precipitable water of 1.2-1.4 inches, suggests
   damaging winds should be the primary severe threat.  Weak midlevel
   lapse rates should tend to temper the hail threat.

   ..Peters/Hart.. 05/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32378483 33408524 34038446 34228331 34338220 34198112
               33908077 33438074 32948122 32578248 32378377 32318411
               32378483 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2017
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