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Mesoscale Discussion 915
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PANHANDLE AND NW TX...NE NM...FAR SW OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...

   VALID 090419Z - 090545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG
   THE SRN FLANK OF A PRE-FRONTAL QLCS SHIFTING E/SEWD ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE/RED RIVER. UPSTREAM STORMS FORMING ATOP THE COLD POOL ON
   THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS HAS OCCURRED
   FROM N TO S THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH 35 DBZ REFLECTIVITY AT 9 KM
   CAPPI CONFINED FROM GRAY TO SWISHER COUNTIES AS OF 0415Z. AS THE
   QLCS PROPAGATES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /PER
   00Z OUN RAOB/...CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS IS
   ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AS THE APEX OF THE LINE LIKELY MOVES ALONG
   THE RED RIVER.

   RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER NERN NM ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC FRONT /EVIDENT IN PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET/. DESPITE 50S
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SPEED
   SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT A NEAR-TERM HAIL
   RISK. WITH TIME...THESE UPDRAFTS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND BEGIN TO
   MERGE WITH THE TRAILING FLANK OF THE PANHANDLE QLCS. AS THIS
   ACTIVITY LARGELY PARALLELS THE DEEP SHEAR VECTOR...HAIL SHOULD BE
   THE PRIMARY RISK AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED WITHIN THE WRN
   MOST UPDRAFTS.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33420226 33980306 34460388 34960448 35370478 35570470
               35600407 35480292 35080180 35000119 35620048 35589964
               35039914 34589875 34089878 33419960 32990050 33050154
               33420226 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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