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Mesoscale Discussion 916
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0916
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

   Areas affected...Central/southeastern Colorado into central/eastern
   New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291932Z - 292030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms in the Front Range may propagate
   east/southeastward through the afternoon and early evening.  A WW is
   not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in intensity and
   coverage over the past hour or two.  These storms are in an
   environment characterized by very weak surface upslope, modest
   mid-level destabilization, marginal deep shear for storm
   organization, and a deeply mixed boundary layer, with 30-40F
   dewpoint depressions favoring isolated downbursts.  Isolated hail
   may also occur near the strongest cores given steep mid-level lapse
   rates and cool temperatures aloft (-13 to -15 C at 500mb).

   Models/high-res guidance (HRRR and NAM4) are persistent in
   suggesting that convection will merge and propagate eastward off of
   the higher terrain over the course of the afternoon.  Isolated
   damaging wind gusts/hail will be the biggest threats with this
   activity if it does indeed organize as depicted in guidance.  Weak
   low- and deep shear profiles in the region should mitigate the
   intensity of any linear segments that can organize, which will
   likely preclude any WW issuance this afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 05/29/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38840535 39060508 39100443 38760367 37970346 36770318
               35400314 34190321 33640361 33300427 33150508 33270568
               33790600 34860590 36270584 37740561 38840535 

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