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Mesoscale Discussion 918
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 AM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AR/FAR NORTHERN LA TO WESTERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091439Z - 091645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR/FAR NORTHERN
   LA INTO WESTERN MS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MAKE A GENERAL
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING...WITH A
   CURRENT FORWARD MOTION AS FAST AS 30-35 KT AS OF 1430Z. WHILE LIKELY
   STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT MID-MORNING...THE PORTION OF THE SQUALL
   LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST AR AND ACROSS EXTREME
   NORTHEAST TX IS RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED WITH SOME EMBEDDED BOWING
   STRUCTURES. THE CORRIDOR COINCIDES WITH A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

   WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY STABLE NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW
   AT THIS TIME...A POCKET OF RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ARE NOTED TO
   ITS NORTH. AS AIR MASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES...ADDITIONAL STORM
   INTENSIFICATION SEEMS PROBABLE...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
   THE PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
   SHREVEPORT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 1000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE AS
   TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S F. AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
   SOUTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...DAMAGING
   WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT SEVERE
   HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SQUALL LINE.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33509395 34159338 33829048 33809036 32499029 32359168
               32689377 33509395 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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