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Mesoscale Discussion 918
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN IA...SWRN MN...CENTRAL/ERN
   NEB...SERN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...

   VALID 070111Z - 070215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR GENERALLY THE
   NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CURRENT WATCH AREA AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE 02Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TSTMS...OCNLY SVR...CONTINUE ACROSS NERN
   NEB/SERN SD AT 01Z. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF
   WW AREA THROUGH 02Z...AND WITH TSTMS FARTHER WEST ALONG AND IN
   ADVANCE OF AN EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
   PRIOR TO 02Z.

   THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE WATCH AREA REMAINS
   FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SVR THREAT...WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY AND
   30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  LATEST VWP DATA FROM KOAX AND
   KFSD CONTINUE TO SHOW CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
   200-300 M2/S2. INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE...WITH THE
   NUMBER OF STORMS/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE
   POTENTIAL SEVERITY. GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS WHICH ARE
   LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SVR RISK...INCLUDING TORNADOES...A
   NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO 02Z MAINLY NORTH OF
   INTERSTATE 80.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41599592 41019737 41339848 41629873 42219903 43049892
               43429853 43879786 44269726 44379676 44309608 43799570
               43049525 42289530 41599592 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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