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Mesoscale Discussion 919
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...W-CNTRL/SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091707Z - 091930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE INTO
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS THAT ARE
   STREAMING NWD INTO THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE OF AN MCS THAT TRAILS
   SWWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY FROM AR. THE LEADING LINE HAS...AND
   WILL CONTINUE TO...EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF DISCRETE PROPAGATION
   TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST WHILE MERGING WITH
   THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AS THE LINE IS GENERALLY
   ORIENTED PARALLEL TO 25-KT SWLYS PER AREA VWPS. WHERE CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING HAS NOT BEEN ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE MCS...MODIFIED 12Z
   CRP/LCH RAOBS INDICATE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE LARGELY AIDED
   BY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MIXING RATIO
   VALUES AROUND 16.0-16.5 G/KG. 

   THIS MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY -- FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARD PEAK
   HEATING -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS. THERE
   WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   DMGG WIND GUSTS...ENCOURAGED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES ASSOCIATED
   WITH 1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA. LOCALIZED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
   ORIENTED MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE FLOW ALOFT COULD EVENTUALLY
   EVOLVE...IN WHICH CASE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD
   INCREASE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A
   LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS SURGING TOWARD THE COAST WITH
   AN ENHANCED SVR-WIND RISK IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29649749 31369423 31559266 30419258 29749398 29219497
               28589623 28299725 28579796 29109809 29649749 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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