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Mesoscale Discussion 920
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

   VALID 070333Z - 070430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK LINGERS IN AND NEAR WW
   264...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS BOTH THE ERN AND WRN PARTS
   OF WW 264...THOUGH IT HAS BECOME LARGELY DISORGANIZED. LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SMALL...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS
   MOVING ACROSS NWRN KS...WITH A 46 KT GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED AT COLBY
   KS. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING CINH AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AS
   OBSERVED FROM KGLD VWP/...A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E OUT OF WW 264 AND NO DOWNSTREAM
   WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. 

   FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION PERSISTS E OF DENVER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR OF AROUND 30-35 KTS /PER KFTG VWP/ IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
   COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST. WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NERN CO...THOUGH
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. 

   CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS
   EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUE TO MOVE
   OVER THE AREA...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. EARLY CANCELLATION OF WW 264 IS LIKELY IF
   WEAKENING TRENDS PERSIST.

   ..DEAN.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38510393 39200468 39570505 39930491 40440398 40700276
               41070097 41309998 40239941 39449935 38859974 38450041
               38340357 38510393 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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