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Mesoscale Discussion 920
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...SRN NC...FAR ERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091843Z - 092115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
   REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S --
   IS SUPPORTING STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z CHS RAOB FOR CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS
   INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
   REMAINING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SUCCEEDS A BOUNDARY THAT IS
   ADVANCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN GA AND WRN SC. RICHER DEEP MOISTURE
   BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G. PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES PER GPS DATA --
   AND ASSOCIATED STRONG BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION. AS DIURNAL HEATING BOLSTERS OROGRAPHIC AND PBL
   CIRCULATIONS...AND WEAK ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP
   MOISTURE SURGE CONTINUES...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED BY
   RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS INVOF THE NC/TN BORDER...WHILE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CU IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED AT THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE.

   THE AUGMENTATION TO THE FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDING AN MCV -- CURRENTLY
   OVER NERN TN PER VIS IMAGERY -- IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE 20-35-KT OF
   WLYS/WNWLYS SAMPLED BY THE CAE AND GSP VWPS IN THE 2-3-KM LAYER. IN
   ADDITION TO ENCOURAGING MODEST DEEP SHEAR...THIS ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
   WILL ALSO ACCELERATE DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AS
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVE WITHIN THE STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN -- ESPECIALLY IN SC -- DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DMGG WIND GUSTS -- AIDED BY DCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG -- AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR
   ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR RISK. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
   POSSIBILITY THAT SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD FORWARD
   PROPAGATE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A SVR RISK TO WARRANT WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33168220 34378279 35258236 35488150 35398059 34897904
               33997837 32787945 31988098 33168220 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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