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Mesoscale Discussion 921
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN MN...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...

   VALID 070400Z - 070600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 265 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
   AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK HAS LESSENED
   OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA BY 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A PRONOUNCED LINEAR
   STRUCTURE WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA
   LATE THIS EVENING...AND LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH BRIEF LEADING-EDGE
   CIRCULATIONS. AS THE LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SVR
   RISK GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
   THE PRIMARY RISK IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF LOW-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION. WITH TIME THE THREAT WILL INCREASE TO THE E OF WW...AND
   THUS A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 05Z INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA.


   ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE WW AREA...WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION/COOLING HAS SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT.
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT THERE AND
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA...REFERENCE WPC MESOSCALE
   PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 180 FOR DETAILS.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41479684 41559777 41889785 42519726 43739656 44189638
               44359590 44369549 43969491 42939446 42539427 42049472
               41589565 41479684 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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