MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...
   
   VALID 141523Z - 141700Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 319
   AND NEW CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN AR
   ACROSS ECNTRL TX WITH A BROAD ZONE OF HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS /UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S F/ EXISTING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN EAST TX AND
   SCNTRL LA. RUC DATA SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS
   THIS CORRIDOR AND A SLOW DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY AS SFC TEMPS
   WARM THROUGH MIDDAY.  THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LINE EWD INTO THE ERN
   PORTIONS OF WW 319 AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR.
   THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP FROM POE LA SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS AHEAD OF THE
   LINE. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS MAY ALSO CONTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/14/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
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