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Mesoscale Discussion 922
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091903Z - 092130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...CLOUD BREAKS E/SE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY...WAVY BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM SERN NY TO SWRN PA AND SRN WV IS ENHANCING DIURNAL
   HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BENEATH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXIST...AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. A BAND OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WSWLYS -- E.G.
   25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE AKQ VWP -- MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
   STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AIDED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES ENHANCED BY
   1.4-1.6-INCH PW PER GPS DATA. MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OWING TO
   RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS COULD SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF WEAK
   STORM-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP SHEAR...THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE LACK OF
   STRONGER BUOYANCY...ALL PRECLUDE A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36967849 38797844 40707696 40907562 40457473 38837511
               36777598 36967849 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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