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Mesoscale Discussion 923
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

   Areas affected...Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302156Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue across
   northern Virginia into the early evening hours.  Large hail will be
   the primary threat, though locally damaging winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
   low-level lapse rates west of the wedge front across VA.  As a
   result, surface-based thunderstorms have developed along the eastern
   fringe of this more buoyant air mass and are slowly maturing within
   a corridor of favorable low-level convergence.  High-res model
   guidance has been consistent regarding this development and
   supercells are evolving within a strongly sheared and favorably
   unstable environment.  Latest radar data strongly suggests at least
   golf ball sized hail with the supercell over Culpeper/Stafford
   Counties.  There is increasing concern that this activity will
   linger into the evening hours as they propagate southeast along the
   wedge front.  Hail and wind can be expected with this activity.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 05/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39397773 38747750 38317716 37907668 37447675 37457746
               38207825 39277839 39397773 

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