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Mesoscale Discussion 923
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091932Z - 092130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST OK.

   DISCUSSION...JUST EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
   KS...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
   NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE WICHITA/HUTCHINSON KS AREAS...WITH AN OCCLUDED
   FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK. AS SOME ADDITIONAL
   HEATING OCCURS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF
   THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   NOT STRONG /30 KT OR LESS PER WICHITA WSR-88D VWP/ AND OVERALL
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT AMBIENT VERTICAL
   VORTICITY AND UPWARDS OF 100 J/KG OF 0-3 KM CAPE FOCUSED NEAR THE
   ARCING SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ASIDE
   FROM SOME HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37539864 37989834 38079673 37399527 37049499 36219468
               35629486 35609549 35789574 36139595 36809637 37269734
               37539864 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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