MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS - BIG COUNTRY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 021924Z - 022030Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   AND BIG COUNTRY.  A WW IS LIKELY--AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT INITIALLY.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ORIENTED FROM NEAR LBB TO 55 MI NW ABI AND THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
   STEADILY PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF
   THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY TO VERY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG PER LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.  DESPITE MARGINAL WLY FLOW ALOFT...BACKED LOW
   LEVEL WINDS N OF BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR.  EXPECTING INITIAL ACTIVITY TO PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED NEAR/N
   OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  DEEPLY CONVERGENT UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY
   POSE A LARGE HAIL /PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/ THREAT.  LARGE MAGNITUDE OF
   INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR MAY FOSTER EXTREME DEVIANT SUPERCELLS
   WITH ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32720242 33140289 33650290 33980272 34060204 33890108
               33549976 33189882 32729824 32229826 31789864 31699968
               31810054 32360185 32720242