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Mesoscale Discussion 923
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071814Z - 072045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE
   CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM...WHICH WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING
   TO CONTINUE TO WARM THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SFC
   TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 80S AND PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN THE
   PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE MCD REGION...WITH UP TO
   2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER UT SHOULD PROVIDE ONLY A GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OVER ERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH 25-35 KT OF
   WSWLY WINDS AT 500 MB COMMON OVER THIS AREA PER RAP ANALYSIS.

   CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL
   NM...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
   ENE INTO ERN NM AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH
   TIME. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT...EVIDENCED BY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SHOULD
   ALLOW SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE. ANY OF THESE
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
   GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD/BULK SHEAR AND
   ISOLATED EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34410227 32910374 32880520 33640579 35980512 36940481
               36960231 36050207 34410227 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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