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Mesoscale Discussion 924
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA...NCNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071852Z - 071945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN MO AND
   SERN IA EWD ACROSS NCNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE. WW ISSUANCE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM CNTRL WI SWWD INTO SRN IA...FAR SE NEB AND NRN KS. AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
   70S F WITH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S F. THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO A POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE MCD AREA. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MO WHICH WILL AID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS APPEAR TO DEVELOP SFC-BASED STORMS FROM NEAR THE IA-MO
   STATELINE EWD INTO NCNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS
   CNTRL AND NRN IL SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
   40 TO 45 KT OF FLOW AT MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS CELLS INITIATE AND
   EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS
   THAT ROTATE. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
   LINE SEGMENTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF A
   COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EARLY EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40198799 39849095 39589255 39929342 40429381 40919369
               41399278 41309099 41268787 40198799 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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