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Mesoscale Discussion 925
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SWRN NEB...AND WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071936Z - 072130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEM PROBABLE
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE
   ALONG OR JUST N OF A SLOWLY SWD MOVING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT
   CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IN SERN CO AS BROAD LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WIND MAXIMUM AT THE UPPER LEVELS
   INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES IN SERN CO/SWRN KS
   HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 50S.

   A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVER
   NERN CO/SWRN NEB...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
   OF AGITATED CU POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR
   CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT
   RANGE IN CO. IN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
   50S. WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER DIURNAL HEATING
   SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-8.0 DEG C/KM SHOULD ENCOURAGE MLCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG OVER THIS REGION.

   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
   OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THIS SHOULD ENABLE ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH
   AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN
   BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE...NAMELY E-CNTRL CO INTO
   W-CNTRL KS...THERE SEEMS TO BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN MOST RECENT CAM GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS
   ONLY A SUBSET OF THE OVERALL MCD AREA MAY NEED A WW OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37060043 37050207 37040455 39200476 40960516 40990306
               40950127 40100064 38590040 37060043 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2015
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