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Mesoscale Discussion 925
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092037Z - 092300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   LIMITED...THERE IS A NON-ZERO RISK OF SUCH DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG A
   COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING SWD OVER THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE DFW METROPLEX ARCING SWWD TO
   NEAR DEL RIO. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DRAWN W-E
   ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE TX BRUSH COUNTRY...WHICH LINKS WITH A SQUALL
   LINE OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. MODIFICATION OF THE AIR
   MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE OWING TO SFC HEATING AMIDST UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION.
   ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12Z DRT RAOB FOR CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS INDICATE
   MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG WITH SOME INHIBITION REMAINING.

   AS INSOLATION CONTINUES...CAPPING ALOFT COULD BE BREACHED DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS ENCOURAGED BY /1/ ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   ESPECIALLY AS IT OVERTAKES THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND /2/ ASCENT
   ALONG DIURNALLY ENHANCED PBL CIRCULATIONS AT THE EDGE OF STEEP
   SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE VICINITY OF
   THE RIO GRANDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE FACTORS MAY BREED ISOLATED
   STORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
   NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- ASIDE
   FROM DEEPENING CU FIELDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND
   TERRAIN-DRIVEN STORMS IN MEXICO.

   IF STORMS WERE TO FORM...THE PRESENCE OF 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR -- AND NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS PER DFX 
   VWP -- WOULD SUPPORT SEWD-MOVING...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
   WOULD BE OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...ONLY MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE...AND THE INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL
   DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ANY SVR RISK IS HIGHLY
   CONDITIONAL...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29310087 29809850 28689756 27699802 27219949 28290045
               29310087 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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