|Mesoscale Discussion 926|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017
Areas affected...Far northeast PA...Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western
ME...Western MA...Northwest CT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311629Z - 311730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next hour or so with the strongest storms capable of hail and
damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed over portions of
the region to cover this threat.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase
in cumulus development across eastern NY, within the area of broadly
confluent surface flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
Forcing for ascent provided by both the modest surface convergence
and the shortwave trough is expected to result in thunderstorm
development during the next hour or two. Low-levels are not
particularly warm or moist but continued daytime heating should
contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and adequate insolation to
remove any remaining convective inhibition. Additionally, cool
mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -19 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will
result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, despite dewpoints in the mid
to upper 50s. Strong mid-level flow will support updraft
organization and hail development within the more robust updrafts.
Quick storm motion and downward momentum transfer of the enhanced
flow aloft could also contribute to some damaging wind gusts. A
watch will likely be needed to address the resulting severe threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45037253 45047182 45277118 46147028 46237002 46116965
45946949 45616959 43717097 41737283 41217427 41567639
42637585 43017554 44737416 45047388 45037253
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home