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Mesoscale Discussion 926
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...Far northeast PA...Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western
   ME...Western MA...Northwest CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311629Z - 311730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
   next hour or so with the strongest storms capable of hail and
   damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed over portions of
   the region to cover this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown an increase
   in cumulus development across eastern NY, within the area of broadly
   confluent surface flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
   Forcing for ascent provided by both the modest surface convergence
   and the shortwave trough is expected to result in thunderstorm
   development during the next hour or two. Low-levels are not
   particularly warm or moist but continued daytime heating should
   contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and adequate insolation to
   remove any remaining convective inhibition. Additionally, cool
   mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -19 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will
   result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, despite dewpoints in the mid
   to upper 50s. Strong mid-level flow will support updraft
   organization and hail development within the more robust updrafts.
   Quick storm motion and downward momentum transfer of the enhanced
   flow aloft could also contribute to some damaging wind gusts. A
   watch will likely be needed to address the resulting severe threat.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45037253 45047182 45277118 46147028 46237002 46116965
               45946949 45616959 43717097 41737283 41217427 41567639
               42637585 43017554 44737416 45047388 45037253 

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