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Mesoscale Discussion 927
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0927
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...VA...southern MD...and southeast WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311758Z - 312030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storm development will remain
   possible this afternoon across southeast WV and perhaps into
   southwest VA.  Meanwhile, the potential exists for additional storms
   to develop with some increase in coverage and intensity by mid-late
   afternoon in central and eastern VA to southern MD.  Damaging winds
   and hail will be the primary severe-weather threats, while forecast
   coverage currently suggests WW issuance will be unlikely.  However,
   convective trends will be monitored for any changes for a greater
   severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery indicated a persistent band of
   midlevel clouds tracking east across central WV early this
   afternoon, with this apparent corridor of forcing for ascent
   (attendant to the cloud band) expected to reach central VA around
   20Z.  Strong surface heating will continue this afternoon,
   steepening low-level lapse rates across the discussion area.  This
   combined with a moist environment extending from southeast VA into
   central VA (in vicinity of CHO) to southern MD is resulting in a
   moderately unstable air mass (MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg).  New
   thunderstorm development should occur with some increase in coverage
   by mid-late afternoon across central VA where the air mass is more
   moist and unstable, with activity then spreading east.  Weak
   midlevel lapse rates will tend to temper updraft strength, though
   effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt suggests any stronger/sustained
   storms could become organized, with isolated damaging winds and some
   hail being the primary threats.

   ..Peters/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36587684 36637839 37297856 38427855 38737853 38567744
               38457697 38067626 37127604 36797597 36587684 

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