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Mesoscale Discussion 927
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS...EXTREME NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072231Z - 080000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MULTIPLE ORGANIZED SEVERE CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...DESPITE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
   SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN KS THUS FAR...LIKELY DUE TO
   WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
   AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST 1-MINUTE SUPER-RAPID SCAN VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS
   A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS OF DEEPENING CU...ONE ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND
   SHIFT FROM NORTH OF ICT TO NEAR MCI...AND THE OTHER ALONG THE MAIN
   BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR RSL TO CNK TO FNB...WITH CG LTG RECENTLY
   NOTED NORTH OF RSL FROM A DEVELOPING UPDRAFT.  

   WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE
   IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR
   BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL...WHILE A DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORM
   MODE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WW ISSUANCE IS THE COVERAGE OF
   THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE THREAT OF
   MULTIPLE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS IMMINENT.

   ..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39159465 38699583 37459842 37719901 38039929 38599949
               39259835 39759713 40159596 40169535 39719506 39159465 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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