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Mesoscale Discussion 927
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN/NRN AL...MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267...

   VALID 092154Z - 092330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
   GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO SHOULD PERSIST
   WITHIN/DEVELOP E/NE OF WW/S 267/268. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW
   ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE MS RIVER IN TN/MS...WITH
   THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS MS. S OF A RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING FROM AROUND 40 N JAN TO AUO...AIR MASS IS
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z JAN RAOB. N OF THIS WEAK
   BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITHIN THE
   PREVIOUSLY CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED AIR MASS...YIELDING MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION. 40 KT SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL IN JAN VWP DATA WILL
   MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE N/S-ORIENTATION OF THE
   LINE AS IT PROGRESSES E/NEWD THIS EVENING. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SWLYS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO LARGELY LAG THE LINE PER AREA VWP AND MODEL
   FORECASTS. STILL...BACKED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS TN INTO PERHAPS NRN
   AL SUPPORT A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32549070 34099011 34778974 35568905 36008827 36108775
               36008708 35578667 34928640 34528645 33218733 32308837
               31828906 31818986 31919034 32549070 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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