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Mesoscale Discussion 928
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0928
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern OH...Western PA...Northern WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311805Z - 311930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible over
   the next several hours as thunderstorms move across eastern OH,
   western PA, and far northern WV.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed over the past hour within the
   modestly unstable airmass across central OH. Primary forcing for
   this increased convection is likely the shortwave trough currently
   pivoting through the southwestern periphery of the large upper low
   centered over Ontario. Despite relatively scant low-level moisture,
   some instability has developed ahead of these storms across central
   OH and western PA, largely as a result of cool mid-level
   temperatures (around -19 deg C at 500 mb) and modest surface
   heating. Unidirectional shear profiles will support fast storm
   motion and the potential for a few strong wind gusts with the more
   robust updrafts. Additionally, the enhanced flow aloft and resulting
   potential updraft organization is supportive of an isolated hail
   threat. Limited severe coverage is currently expected, precluding
   higher watch probabilities. Even so, convective trends across the
   area will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40228276 41128209 41778124 42068055 42078007 41997953
               41847924 41387914 39997973 39238056 38708213 38988324

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