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Mesoscale Discussion 928
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN IL...NRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267...270...

   VALID 072234Z - 080000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   267...270...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREAS IN THE FORM OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE
   STORMS. THE MORE PRONOUNCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM
   WILL BE WITH PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. A
   LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED WITH TIME TO THE EAST OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF
   THIS WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS WERE IN PROGRESS AT 2225Z FROM NWRN
   IND SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL IL...WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL. THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
   RECENTLY HAS BEEN LINEAR...WITH A PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENT OVER FAR
   NWRN IND SHOWING A WELL-DEVELOPED COMMA HEAD AND REAR INFLOW JET.
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT SVR WIND REPORTS
   POSSIBLE AS THIS SEGMENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD WITHIN A
   FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. WITH TIME...A
   LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 270 MAY BE NEEDED TO THE E OF CURRENT WATCH
   AREA. IN ADDITION...A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
   THIS WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.

   SVR TSTMS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL IL WITHIN WW 267 REMAIN
   A MIX OF LINEAR AND SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS. MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT VWP
   DATA REFLECT 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH MODERATE/STRONG
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN BROAD/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE AREA...THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SVR THREAT INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41029047 41398973 41728914 41878877 41748826 41578765
               41618679 41648605 41598563 41488531 41148505 40908504
               40588519 40518606 40478727 40218758 39748766 39538811
               39638867 39918951 39939003 40069043 40259061 40899065
               41029047 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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