|Mesoscale Discussion 929|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017
Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311833Z - 312030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are possible over
the next several hours across portions of central and eastern NC.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery showed quick storm development
across central NC over the past hour. Impetus for this development
is likely a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within the enhanced cyclonic flow extending from the TN valley into
the mid-Atlantic. Daytime heating amidst ample low-level moisture
has contributed to modest instability over the region, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The stronger
mid-level flow is displaced north of region across the Northeast but
enough mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500) and shear (i.e.
effective shear around 40-45 kt) still exists to support rotating
updrafts and modest storm organization. As a result, some hail
and/or damaging wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms.
Limited severe coverage is currently expected to preclude watch
issuance but convective trends across the region will be monitored
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36057662 35297713 34877776 34577914 34767964 35177983
35767918 36357795 36437691 36057662
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