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Mesoscale Discussion 929
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092253Z - 100100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SMALL CBS ARE ATTEMPTING TO INITIATE ACROSS
   PARTS OF S TX. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SUSTAINABILITY OF DEEP
   CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGION...BUT IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO
   FORM...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE INCREASINGLY
   AGITATED CU AND SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
   APPARENT GRAVITY WAVES THAT EMANATED FROM A DISSIPATED MCS OVER THE
   UPPER TX GULF COAST. AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY QUITE UNSTABLE AND
   SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE INSTABILITY. BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
   BOUNDARIES AMIDST ANEMIC LOW-LEVEL WINDS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   ROBUST HIGH-LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...PROVIDE
   SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL LONGEVITY OF DEEP
   CONVECTION. STILL ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLYS OWING TO
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE KS/OK BORDER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOULD
   STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WOULD FAVOR A RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29659918 30219823 30679770 30779679 30469600 30129595
               29029652 28569737 28479809 28609896 29029918 29489936
               29659918 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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