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Mesoscale Discussion 929
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK
   PANHANDLE...SWRN KS...NWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268...

   VALID 072319Z - 080045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND CONTINUES IN AND
   NEAR WW 268. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL EXPAND OUT OF THE
   WATCH INTO NWRN OK...BUT DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2315Z...SCATTERED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
   ARE ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY THE SERN HALF OF WW 268...WITH A MEASURED
   GUST TO 54 KTS OBSERVED AT 2235Z IN BEAVER COUNTY OK. THE STORM
   CLUSTER THAT PRODUCED THAT SEVERE WIND GUST IS NOW MOVING OUT OF THE
   WATCH INTO NWRN OK. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST WITH
   THIS CLUSTER FOR NEXT 1-2 HRS GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW /AS NOTED ON 21Z LMN SOUNDING/ SHOULD LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
   THIS SYSTEM...AND DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW 268...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INTO SEVERAL
   SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY TEMPER THE WIND THREAT SOMEWHAT.
   MEANWHILE...REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF WW 268
   IN NERN NM/SERN CO...AND ONGOING STORMS ACROSS E-CNTRL CO MAY MOVE
   SEWD INTO THE WATCH AFTER 00Z...WITH AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL RISK.

   ..DEAN.. 06/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34340530 35030570 35290571 35810571 35880571 35970571
               36970523 36990521 37270354 37750293 37950251 38050226
               38180188 38180139 38030065 37870000 37379944 36619936
               36329959 35170216 34600370 34340488 34340530 34340530 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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