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Mesoscale Discussion 929
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311833Z - 312030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are possible over
   the next several hours across portions of central and eastern NC.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery showed quick storm development
   across central NC over the past hour. Impetus for this development
   is likely a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
   within the enhanced cyclonic flow extending from the TN valley into
   the mid-Atlantic. Daytime heating amidst ample low-level moisture
   has contributed to modest instability over the region, with recent
   mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The stronger
   mid-level flow is displaced north of region across the Northeast but
   enough mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500) and shear (i.e.
   effective shear around 40-45 kt) still exists to support rotating
   updrafts and modest storm organization. As a result, some hail
   and/or damaging wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms.
   Limited severe coverage is currently expected to preclude watch
   issuance but convective trends across the region will be monitored

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36057662 35297713 34877776 34577914 34767964 35177983
               35767918 36357795 36437691 36057662 

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