|Mesoscale Discussion 930|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017
Areas affected...Eastern KS...Southwest MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...
Valid 311845Z - 311945Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop across eastern KS
spreading into west-central and southwest MO this afternoon. While
large hail has been, and should continue to be, the primary severe
risk with the northern cluster of storms spreading from eastern KS
into west-central MO, an additional threat for damaging winds can be
expected with storms moving from southeast KS into southwest MO.
DISCUSSION...Objective analyses based on the RAP indicated a
moderately unstable environment has developed along and south of a
surface front which stretched from central MO into central KS this
afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles with southerly surface
winds in the warm sector and 30-40 kt west-northwesterly winds at
500 mb will continue to result in sufficient effective bulk shear of
35-40 kt across KS into MO. These factors coupled with steep
midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km spreading across the discussion
area suggest additional large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible. The latter threat will be greatest in southeast KS into
southwest MO where low-level lapse rates are expected to be steeper.
The primary forcing mechanism for the increase in thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon appears to be a midlevel perturbation
tracking through eastern KS at this time per water vapor imagery.
This trough and attendant forcing for ascent will spread into
central and southern MO this afternoon and evening, supporting
additional storm development and severe threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36509276 36509312 36509411 36509451 36509462 37009506
37389508 37549508 37569508 37819508 38689506 38749505
38849461 38839416 38839412 38529306 37479269 37259268
37249268 37169268 37119268 37099268 37069269 36509276
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