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Mesoscale Discussion 930
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092309Z - 100045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP JUST ACROSS
   THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MEAGER
   BUOYANCY S OF THE BORDER SUGGESTS THIS RISK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
   AND SPATIALLY CONFINED.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE NOTED OVER FAR
   SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH ONE CELL ABOUT TO CROSS THE BORDER INTO MT.
   THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
   AND FED BY UPSTREAM 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
   QUITE DRY IN MT /DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE 30S/. BUT STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AIDED BY UPPER 70S-MIDDLE 80S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SAMPLED IN GGW VWP
   DATA SHOULD SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK THROUGH ABOUT
   02Z. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN SUCH A MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS
   SHOULD YIELD RAPID DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   49030521 48260622 48210834 48360917 48740959 49030954
               49030521 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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