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Mesoscale Discussion 930
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0930
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern KS...Southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

   Valid 311845Z - 311945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop across eastern KS
   spreading into west-central and southwest MO this afternoon.  While
   large hail has been, and should continue to be, the primary severe
   risk with the northern cluster of storms spreading from eastern KS
   into west-central MO, an additional threat for damaging winds can be
   expected with storms moving from southeast KS into southwest MO.

   DISCUSSION...Objective analyses based on the RAP indicated a
   moderately unstable environment has developed along and south of a
   surface front which stretched from central MO into central KS this
   afternoon.  Vertically veering wind profiles with southerly surface
   winds in the warm sector and 30-40 kt west-northwesterly winds at
   500 mb will continue to result in sufficient effective bulk shear of
   35-40 kt across KS into MO.  These factors coupled with steep
   midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km spreading across the discussion
   area suggest additional large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
   possible.  The latter threat will be greatest in southeast KS into
   southwest MO where low-level lapse rates are expected to be steeper.

   The primary forcing mechanism for the increase in thunderstorm
   coverage this afternoon appears to be a midlevel perturbation
   tracking through eastern KS at this time per water vapor imagery. 
   This trough and attendant forcing for ascent will spread into
   central and southern MO this afternoon and evening, supporting
   additional storm development and severe threat.

   ..Peters/Hart.. 05/31/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36509276 36509312 36509411 36509451 36509462 37009506
               37389508 37549508 37569508 37819508 38689506 38749505
               38849461 38839416 38839412 38529306 37479269 37259268
               37249268 37169268 37119268 37099268 37069269 36509276

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