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Mesoscale Discussion 931
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...

   VALID 092344Z - 100145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /LOCATED NEAR
   TAZEWELL COUNTY VIRGINIA/. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS PRECLUDED MORE ROBUST
   THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 269...HAIL AROUND 1
   INCH IN DIAMETER AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MILES PER
   HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
   WANE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

   ..MARSH.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33888226 35018197 36008158 35897951 35327969 34418000
               33808023 33768158 33888226 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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