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Mesoscale Discussion 933
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151757Z - 152000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   AND CENTRAL WI.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN
   VERTICAL CU GROWTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN WI...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD/SE
   OF THE UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER NERN MN.  WV IMAGERY
   INDICATES A LOBE OF IMPLIED ASCENT SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL MN ON THE SWRN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN
   WI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  AS THIS OCCURS...CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM
   HEATING AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER
   CAPE NOW IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE OVER WRN AND SRN WI/ SUGGESTS
   THAT STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR -- INITIALLY OVER NWRN WI AND
   THEN SPREADING SEWD WITH TIME.  

   WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED /50 KT/ WNWLYS ON THE WRN AND SRN FRINGES OF
   THE LOW TO SPREAD EWD INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HAIL/WIND RISK
   ACROSS THE AREA.  TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY
   GIVEN WEAK -- AND VEERING -- BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH TIME. 
   HOWEVER...AMBIENT VORTICITY INVOF THE UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT SOME
   RISK FOR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADIC SPIN-UPS LOCALLY.  WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
   THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF WI TO ADDRESS THE EVOLVING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.

   ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46009086 45949040 45388912 44438786 43548800 43288881
               43519016 44369163 44799144 45479135 45879123 46009086 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2016
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