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Mesoscale Discussion 934
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Maine...eastern New Hampshire...and eastern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011611Z - 011830Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of convection has developed along an axis near the
   western extent of the discussion area.  This band should gradually
   increase in intensity, with hail and damaging wind gusts becoming
   more of a threat as the afternoon progresses.  A WW may be needed
   (especially in eastern Maine) later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along a NNE to SSW band from
   near far northern Maine (about 90 W of Caribou) to near Worcester,
   Massachusetts.  This convection was responsible for a few brief
   downpours, small hail, and some lightning.  The combination of
   cooling temperatures aloft associated with an approaching shortwave
   near Lake Ontario and insolation/surface warming will lead to
   1000-1500 J/kg MU CAPE developing across the discussion area later
   this afternoon.  This instability, combined with modest deep shear
   profiles and lift associated with the approaching wave will likely
   result in the ongoing band of convection increasing with intensity
   over time.  Hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threats
   with this activity, and this threat will likely be highest over
   eastern Maine.  Given the aforementioned factors, a slight risk
   (driven by wind and hail probabilities) has been introduced at the
   1630Z outlook update and a severe thunderstorm watch may eventually
   be needed (particularly for eastern Maine) later in the afternoon.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 06/01/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47206905 47216874 47336825 47206793 46886776 46126777
               45756778 45506738 45216721 44806705 44616726 44486789
               44266865 43986924 43647004 42987066 42497078 42167094
               42087144 42197177 42997161 45217030 47206905 

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